- The disastrous zero-Covid policies of Chinese President Xi Jinping and his sycophantic apparatchiks have frustrated whole urban populations as cities were plunged into debilitating lockdowns.
- Strict lockdowns have meant that deliveries of fertilizers ahead of key planting seasons have been delayed and missing the window to plant could impact agricultural output down the line.
While the Russian invasion of Ukraine is a clear contributor to already high levels of inflation globally, another source of price pressures could be coming from somewhere few investors are paying attention to – China.
The disastrous zero-Covid policies of Chinese President Xi Jinping and his sycophantic apparatchiks have frustrated whole urban populations as cities were plunged into debilitating lockdowns, but now these same lockdowns are rippling through to the countryside, where food is grown.
Covid lockdowns are exacerbating already serious shortages of fertilizer and seeds wrought by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, stymying the ability of labor to work the land and could leave China’s agricultural land fallow as the crucial spring planting season is missed.
With three weeks to go before farmers in Jilin are due to start planting, official Chinese data suggests that around one-third of farmers did not have enough fertilizer.
Yet there are few signs that Beijing is prepared to reverse course on its zero-Covid policy, as municipal governments fall over each other to show how loyal they are to President Xi’s cause, in a race to the bottom.
Strict lockdowns have meant that deliveries of fertilizers ahead of key planting seasons have been delayed and missing the window to plant could impact agricultural output down the line.
Fertilizer factories in China are also said to be struggling, with many experiencing difficulty shipping to customers and securing raw materials, with many townships refusing to let in trucks from other regions, gumming up the supply chain crucial to agriculture.
According to official Chinese data, as many as a third of farmers in the northeastern provinces of Jilin, Liaoning and Heilongjiang, have insufficient agricultural inputs after authorities sealed off villages to ward off the pandemic.
Combined, Jilin, Liaoning and Heilongjiang make up over a fifth of China’s grain production and a drop in crops that need to be planted in spring, such as rice and corn, could dramatically undermine Beijing’s decades-long goal to achieve self-sufficiency in staple foods, forcing it to increase imports and adding to global food price inflation.
