Crypto’s largest exchange just got hit with $4 billion in fines. Its CEO resigned.
Rumors are swirling that the largest stablecoin, a crypto version of the US dollar, will collapse under US regulatory scrutiny.
Every major US crypto entity is getting sued by investors, users, or the US government.
Bitcoin’s price is up 126% this year.
The bear market warriors claim validation. The OGs chant “victory!” The bull market champions call for new all-time highs.
They all expect crypto will go on an amazing run, they just can’t agree whether that means bitcoin’s price will hit $60,000 before the halving, deliver diminishing returns through the end of 2025, peak sooner than expected in a “left-translated cycle,” or reach some other number on a timeframe that fits within the cycle theories, trading charts, and data models.
Torn between two lovers
Nobody else seems to believe them.
Mainstream commentators seem doubtful. Jim Cramer said crypto’s done. YouTube traders say this is the “B” wave of an A-B-C correction to $6,000 (whatever that means).
Your favorite regulators say it’s a fraud. Munger and Buffett say its going to zero.
Macro guys tell you the wheels are about to fall off the world’s economy but 2022’s Recessionistas tell you that the recession’s been called off.
On-chain gurus say prices have to go up because 75% of bitcoin’s supply sits in the hands of people who either don’t care enough to sell or care so much they won’t sell. Data guys say that can’t happen, “the maths” don’t work out.
One side of YouTube says the bull market’s confirmed. The other side says prices have to go down because “there is no liquidity,” “interest rates are too high,” and “we need capitulation first.”
You’re torn between two lovers, a bull and a bear. They both want what’s best for you, but only one is right!
Just go along with it
Some people simply can’t accept the reality: if bitcoin’s price stays above $15,600, crypto’s been in a bull market for over a year.
If that’s you, no worries!
What you’re feeling is normal during the disbelief stage of the market cycle, just before hope returns. This is a psychological phenomenon best illustrated by the Wall Street Cheat Sheet, an image that captures the emotions you will feel as you ride the crypto rollercoaster.
Take a look:
Can you apply that to bitcoin’s price chart? Here it is:
You don’t have to believe what you see. You may, however, want to suspend your disbelief.
Excuses, excuses
Since the start of the year, every upswing has ended with a downswing. You get your hopes up, only to be let down.
Priya in the Park insists the end is near, and she’s called every crypto bear market—sometimes more than three years in advance! She’s always right!
Billy the Neighbor just bought back the Tesla stock he sold at the 2022 bottom but he’s not hitting you up for altcoin recommendations anymore crypto because “it’s dead” and “I don’t see why it’s valuable.”
Your family thinks you lost all of your money.
Conspiracy theorists tell you Tether, HTX, and [fill-in-the-blank crypto entity] will collapse from regulators, insolvency, central banks, law enforcement, quantum computers, and whatever else the social media algorithms slip into their feeds. Insolvent exchanges are dumping their customers’ cryptos to raise money.
Think of all the excuses you’ve had to keep money out of crypto this year.
Curve.Fi gets hacked and seems on the verge of imploding DeFi, so you keep your money out of the market. Death crosses and bull market support bands say you can’t buy yet. You haven’t found a narrative that will bring new money into crypto, let alone a narrative that fits what you’re looking for, so you sit on your hands waiting for the altcoin capitulation or some news to get you hyped up again.
China has an economic crisis. Supposedly, Europe’s in the middle of one (they don’t know it yet). Canada’s about to collapse.
As a result, your mind simply can’t convince you that this market could ever recover.
Yet, crypto goes up.
Embrace uncertainty
You think crypto should collapse, but nothing’s collapsing. Regulators seem to lose or settle every anti-crypto case. Wall Street’s preparing to take over the space.
Crypto is not going away.
Circumstantial evidence and on-chain behavior suggest stackers and HODLers have settled in for the long haul, and they control the largest portion of the market since 2016. Key sentiment indicators remain in a healthy equilibrium. Key metrics show strong market conditions. China’s stimulus has started to enter the market. Other Asian countries have taken back market share from the US.
I could give you a dozen charts that make the future seem hopeless.
Despite all the gloom, the crypto market has turned a corner on every conceivable metric I look at. Bitcoin’s returns beat almost every asset that people like you and me can buy.
Hard to believe, I know.
Don’t try to believe it. Just try to suspend your disbelief.
If you do that, maybe you’ll see a reality you never knew about.
This post is also available as a collectible NFT at https://mirror.xyz.
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Mark Helfman publishes the Crypto is Easy newsletter. He is also the author of three books and a top Bitcoin writer on Medium and Hacker Noon. Learn more about him in his bio and connect with him on Superpeer or Tealfeed.
