As the cryptocurrency landscape continues to evolve, Bitcoin is poised to flourish in the long run, irrespective of the November 2024 U.S. presidential election outcomes. This sentiment resonates with many cryptocurrency investors as interest sparked by former President Donald Trump’s supportive crypto stance begins to fade.
Bitcoin’s resilience amid political uncertainty
Steven Lubka, head of private clients and family offices at Swan Bitcoin, expressed, “Do I believe we will reach six figures by 2025? Almost certainly. Do I think we will achieve six figures no matter who emerges victorious? Almost certainly. ” According to Lubka, Bitcoin’s trajectory has been closely tied to the fiscal and monetary conditions of countries like the U.S., indicating that the election results will not substantially shift this reality.
James Davies, co-founder of the Crypto Valley exchange, downplayed the fears surrounding Bitcoin’s future. “Some of our communities have become echo chambers, convinced that disaster will strike if one party wins over the other. The market is resilient, not solely focused on the U.S., and has not reacted unfavorably to significant events from either political faction.” He emphasized that the focus should be on opportunities and regulations for U.S.-based users rather than the price of a global commodity.
Price fluctuations and macroeconomic trends
The recent institutional adoption of Bitcoin, underscored by the launch of U.S. Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, has further bolstered this optimistic outlook. Tyr Ross, president of 401 Financial, stated, “The election results will have minimal influence on Bitcoin’s performance over the next 12 to 18 months.” He noted that many firms are still navigating exchange-traded fund access, there are anticipated rate cuts, and retail trading at centralized custodians is currently low.
Throughout most of 2024, Bitcoin has fluctuated between $55,000 and $70,000, following a peak of over $73,000 in March. Investors widely expect this price stagnation to endure until the U.S. electorate selects the next president. However, recent election news seems to have less impact on Bitcoin’s valuation, which appears to be more influenced by broader macroeconomic trends.
Potential impact of election outcomes
In recent weeks, there was speculation that the election could act as a significant trigger for Bitcoin, with many suggesting that a second Trump presidency would benefit the cryptocurrency sector. Analysts at Bernstein indicated that investing in Bitcoin might be the best strategy in light of a potential Trump victory, predicting the cryptocurrency could soar to a new all-time high of around $80,000. Conversely, they suggested a Harris win could see Bitcoin drop toward $40,000.
Lubka remarked, “If Trump wins in November, there may be an immediate surge. If he wins, some immediate sell-off would not surprise me at all. However, over the medium term, I don’t believe that will be the prevailing trend.” While Vice President Harris has not publicly articulated her stance on cryptocurrency, some industry participants are concerned that she may hold unfavorable views akin to those of Senator Elizabeth Warren and U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission Chairperson, Gary Gensler, which are perceived to hinder crypto adoption.
Despite worries stemming from the Biden administration’s approach to Bitcoin, Lubka reminded investors that “Bitcoin has performed exceptionally well” during this period. He highlighted that it has been one of the top assets globally, even in an environment where it faced significant opposition. Historically, governments have tended to adopt at least a mildly hostile stance towards Bitcoin, yet it has thrived.
